Pandemia de Covid-19 e o desemprego entre jovens nas regiões metropolitanas do Brasil

Abstract

This present study aims to analyze the pandemic of COVID-19 and the unemployment in the metropolitan regions (RMs) of Brazil. Evidence in the literature shows higher unemployment among young people. Therefore, this paper seeks to understand whether the pandemic has intensified this behavior. Based on individual micro data from quarterly PNAD-Contínua (IBGE), in the period before the pandemic (2018-2019) and during the hardest part of the pandemic (2020-2021), we aim to analyze the probability of unemployment among young people in the metropolitan areas and the role of the pandemic in its evolution. The instrument used to verify these effects was the Logit econometric method, to estimate the probability of young people being unemployed, as well as to obtain the main transitions in the labor market of young people. The results indicate that more vulnerable groups, such as black and young people with low household income, are more likely to experience unemployment and transitions in the labor market. Furthermore, the pandemic not showing a positive effect on the probability of unemployment among the youth. This can be attributed to the rise in young people classified as 'neither-nor' (not in employment or education) and discouraged workers.