Sobre multiplicadores fiscais: o que a literatura tem a nos dizer?

Abstract

This research aims to gather various theoretical and empirical approaches and discussions found in the literature regarding fiscal multipliers. The Great Depression of the 1930s sparked the economic debate on the countercyclical validity of fiscal policy, that is, its ability to stimulate economic growth primarily through policies of increased public spending. Since then, researchers from various schools of economic thought have been attempting to prove or disprove this validity. The countercyclical value of fiscal policy effectiveness is represented by an estimated numerical coefficient, typically around 1, called the "fiscal multiplier". The size and sign of the multiplier have been shown, over decades of empirical studies, to be extremely sensitive to the macroeconomic characteristics of each country, especially regarding the debt/GDP ratio and the timing of fiscal policy implementation, among other factors. Additionally, methodological decisions in empirical research attempting to calculate the value of this multiplier have been particularly influential in the diversity of results found. In Brazil, the divergence in the magnitude and sign of the estimated parameters is no different. While some studies suggest an insignificant or negative multiplier, others indicate the presence of relevant multipliers, which can seriously complicate the debate when making fiscal management decisions